With the Irish Parliamentary elections less than two weeks away (February 25, 2011) things are getting interesting. The IMF, ECB, EU, German and French banks and pretty much anyone trying to protect senior debt holders must be squirming. The most recent polls show the two opposition groups Labour and Fine Gael with a pretty decisive lead. They could join forces but Fine Gael currently at 38% could also win the 40% needed for a majority without Labour.
From the Irish Times
"THE LEADERS of the two main Opposition parties have ruled out any immediate recapitalisation of the banks if they are elected to form the next government."
"Under that renegotiation, Labour would insist on “burden sharing” with bondholders as part of bank restructuring, he said."
What is interesting about this and something bulls should fear are the following quotes from the Irish Times regarding the views of each party towards future bank bailouts.
From the Irish Times
"THE LEADERS of the two main Opposition parties have ruled out any immediate recapitalisation of the banks if they are elected to form the next government."
"Under that renegotiation, Labour would insist on “burden sharing” with bondholders as part of bank restructuring, he said."
This would be a wonderful development should senior bond holders be forced to accept risk for a change.
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