Friday, February 25, 2011

GDP Q4 2010 Revision

Today's Q4 GDP revision was far below expectations.  Originally reported at 3.17%, real GDP for the fourth quarter was revised down to 2.79% growth.  Government, once a form of stimulus for economic growth has now become a drag at (.20%) of GDP.  The consumer, thought to be strong came in weaker and was revised down as well by .16% although still contributing to growth.

Below is a summary of the original GDP versus the revisions.  Overall, for an economy two years out of recession having experienced trillions in stimulus, this is not a good report.  The data reported by BEA is real GDP and to convert from nominal to real the BEA uses two different inflation measures.  They use a less aggressive number on the overall report yet on the import component which per the formula is a drag on GDP a more aggressive number.   This questionable number many would argue easily overstates real GDP and in fact growth is far lower than reported.


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